11 April 2009

Semi 2

The 2nd semi-final is almost the opposite of the 1st, with more ballads and anthems earlier in the run and the final five songs all being uptempo to one degree or another. This will probably favour those in the second half of the draw more than it did in the 1st semi (even if it ends up producing more qualifiers!) and could lead to a major imbalance in which half of the semi our finalists emerge from.

While three of the six songs in the first third of the draw do have more potential to qualify than the others, only one is virtually guaranteed: fan favourite Norway, whose relentlessly upbeat number has the bookies offering some of the shortest odds on overall victory in the contest's history. Meanwhile, the Serbian entry is in a position to garner enough support from its region and diaspora, while the chances of Latvia doing well - despite being virtually the opposite of Norway: next to no one's favourite - should not be underestimated.

After two more measured and largely forgettable entries the mid-section of the semi starts to throw up more probable qualifiers, with the Danish entry looking like one of the strongest contenders in the field given its easy-listening appeal. Slap bang in the middle of the draw, Slovenia may struggle, especially with Hungary, Azerbaijan and Greece battling it out amongst themselves to see who gets a ticket to the final. The audience may well find it too hard and simply choose to promote all three of them.

After a Lithuanian entry we can only hope the juries will rescue, the last third of the draw cranks up a notch further with ethnopop, Europop and Eurotrash entries from Moldova, Albania and Ukraine that could all do well enough to qualify, although Ukraine is a much safer bet given the nature of the song and performance and its placement in the draw. The Estonian entry it is followed by has an ethereal and almost mesmerising quality which could just as easily capture the viewers' imagination.

As with the 1st semi, the fact that the voting set-up is the same as in 2008 means that picking certain qualifiers is easier than others, but with many songs competing (often back-to-back) with similar entries here the final ten is more of a challenge to predict at this point. Which is a good thing, I might add. I'll put in my two cents' worth as to who I think they might be once I've reviewed each of the songs individually.

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