Norway

Fairytale Alexander Rybak

"I'm already cursed..."

For a contest in which the odds are stacked in favour of a relatively small number of countries, very few (i.e. none) of them west of the Adriatic, Eurovision still manages to surprise by producing favourites and indeed winners from countries whose names end in something other than -ia. Finland's resounding victory in 2006 showed that if a song and performance captures the audience's imagination, however gimmicky the means, it can go all the way wherever it hails from. Of course, it helps if that's somewhere the contest goes out at 10.00 pm at the earliest, since they're places that are usually guaranteed support from their neighbours and more far-fling escapees. Failing that, you have to do pretty much what Norway's done this year: come up with an insanely perky song almost everyone is enthusiastic about, with a delightful and floppy-haired fusion of east and west (and in this case north) at the helm. Give it a veneer of national flavour which sounds like it could come from just about anywhere and voila: you've got Fairytale, the song being given the shortest odds on victory in ESC history.

This is both strange and disconcerting. Let's start with the former. However much of a no-brainer it is that Norway will qualify with Fairytale and in all likelihood vie for the coveted Eurosong title, its chances of winning remain no better than 1 in 42, at least until the end of the 1st semi, when they will improve to 1 in 34, and then very probably to 1 in 25 after Thursday night. It arguably - or at least mathematically - has no more of a chance at the outset than the likes of the Polish and Cypriot entries that bookend it. And yet the bookmakers are offering the kind of odds that will almost see you paying them if it wins. Mind you, they also have Montenegro at about 3 to 1, so you've got to question their judgement, or would have to if you didn't know better. And that's the thing: on paper Fairytale might be no better placed than I Don't Wanna Leave or Firefly, but in practice we all know it has more going for it than just about any other entry this year. It has the look, it has the sound, it has the charm: it's just got that something about it that makes it favourite material.

But something still has to come second, and there are only so many points on offer. What must be off-putting for Norway and jack-of-all-trades Alexander Rybak at this point is the massive momentum that has built up around Fairytale, as humbling as it must also be. Fan favourites fall flat as often as they stroll to victory, as Sweden's Charlotte Perrelli can attest from her trip to Belgrade. Hero and Fairytale may be poles apart as songs, but their appeal is not all that dissimilar, with many fans citing the Norwegian entry's fundamental Eurovisionness as a major drawcard. It didn't work for Sweden though, and Norway must be wondering whether the status they've earned is a curse or a blessing. On balance you'd have to suspect the latter, since Fairytale is likely to appeal to viewers from his Scandinavian stamping ground all the way to his ancestral home of Belarus and beyond. Oslo 2010 probably is the safest bet in years, but stranger things have happened. This is Eurovision, after all.