Semi 1

Unlike the opening semi of 2008, the 1st semi-final in Moscow is a Eurotrash tour-de-force from the off, with little in the way of ballads to trouble the voters until well past the halfway mark. This provides for an upbeat opening to the contest, but makes predicting who will fall foul of such a relentless opening slew all the more difficult. Georgia's withdrawal may mean that the songs in this semi have only a slight advantage over their counterparts in the 2nd semi, but that 3% may make all the difference.

Hardest done-by in the early draw for the 1st semi would seem to be the Czech Republic, whose offbeat entry will have to be pitched perfectly to make a lasting impression, particularly when followed by the more blatantly cartoon fun of perennial also-rans Belgium. The Swedes would also have been hoping for a better start than fifth, but their entry is perhaps less susceptible to the whims of the draw. Rounding off the first third of the semi, Armenia seems impervious to failure with yet another ethno-pop number and a diaspora to die for.

The middle run of the 1st semi is likely to see the televote dominated by the Turkish entry and Iceland's well-placed, well-produced and very traditional ballad. This may not bode well for the Israelis and their vocally complex and rather beautiful anthem or the Swiss, arguably coming into the contest with their best entry in a very long time. Andorra is likewise presenting probably its most approachable entry to date, but by its very nature will struggle to make the cut.

Formerly fated finalists FYR Macedonia lead us into the home straight with another solid entry, but this year more than any other they are likely to fall short, especially in contention with the striking Bosnian entry that rounds off the night's proceedings. The remainder of the semi is a bit of a mixed bag, with Romania's Europop and Portugal's folk number just as likely to do well as the Maltese anthem that comes after them. Finland's slice of the '90s seems the obvious candidate to fall flat here, but coming towards the end of the run - and given as professional a performance as it was in the national final - you'd think twice before ruling out its chances altogether.

Considering that the voting system in this year's semis remains unchanged from 2008, with nine of the ten finalists chosen by the public and one 'rescued' by juries (whose composition is as yet unknown), there are some clear candidates for qualification in this 1st semi - and that's despite the limiting effect of the split draw. Beyond these, though, the possibilities are endless. Well, not endless, but certainly harder to predict than last year. I'll throw my hat into the ring more definitively after reviewing each of the songs individually.