Semi 1: overview

Giving each of the songs in the 1st semi-final the once over - for want of a term even slightly closer to the truth - has seen a shift in my thinking that the qualifiers may represent a fairly even spread of Tuesday night fare. My bias, as in 2008, now favours the rear end of the draw.

Listening to all 18 songs together, I'm starting to wonder whether any from the first third of the show have strong chances other than Armenia. Lent the kind of performances they need, the Czech Republic and Belgium may fight it out for one of the lower qualifying spots; Sweden's chances rest on the audience's mood for an early dose of popera (or the juries once again comprising far too many Eurovision fans). I can't see either Montenegro or Belarus qualifying.

Something strange would have to happen in the middle of the semi for Turkey not to stroll through to Saturday, and I can see the reprieve-starved audience latching on to the simple charms of Iceland, but beyond that this section may also provide a dearth of finalists. I still suspect Switzerland will make it, albeit perhaps not convincingly. As inoffensive as Andorra is, it remains a contender for the lower reaches of the scoreboard.

The closing set of the 1st semi is where I see almost half of its qualifiers coming from. Bosnia and Herzegovina is as safe a bet as Turkey or Armenia, and Romania's not far behind. I can see Portugal receiving enough widespread (if generally modest) support to belie its parochial charms and move forward to the final, with Finland and/or Malta joining them if the performances strike the right note.

Which is basically what I said last year, just changing the names here and there :) It's difficult not to repeat yourself, really: predictions are hard enough to make solely on the basis of studio versions, let alone when you've had them on repeat for anywhere up to four months, and especially when it's the performances on the night that count for everything. You might get a feel for whether something's going to work generally, but you can only ever be confident about things, never certain of them. There's no point to making predictions, of course, and in fact if you don't take any I-told-you-so glee from being spot on, being proven right can be more depressing than anything else.

That said (and I will copy and paste here!), the following are the countries whose names I predict will be in the ten envelopes at the end of the night. Personal preference doesn't come into it; it's based on the assumption that all 18 performances are equally good and equally attractive in their own right; I make no distinction between the nine that qualify through televoting and the jury wildcard; and they're in alphabetical order rather than any anticipated ranking.

- Armenia
- Belgium
- Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Iceland
- Malta
- Portugal
- Romania
- Sweden
- Switzerland
- Turkey

Although thinking about it, it's pretty much a free-for-all before you've even got five. My personal preferences would see the Czech Republic, Andorra and Israel replacing Malta, Sweden and Turkey, and FYR Macedonia maybe even edging out Armenia. Or not. As ever, so much will depend on what they all make of themselves on stage. Our perspectives might change completely once the set reports start filtering in from Moscow. Can't wait!