Semi-final 2: an overview

Unlike last time, taking an individual look at all of the songs in the Thursday semi-final has given me more confidence about which songs will qualify and which ones definitely won't - but not which ones will qualify in place of those whose chances seem non-existent. Giving them the once over in order produced the following thoughts.

The first third of the semi-final, with the glaring exception of Lithuania, is strong enough to produce almost half of its qualifiers, although whether it does is another matter. I'm also on the fence as to whether Sweden can qualify with room to spare in such close proximity to Ukraine, although I would expect both to get through. Albania stands out after the upbeat beginning to the show for being so reserved and I feel it will win enough support to get through.

From the mid-section, Switzerland does not sound as convincing as it might, although Croatia, Bulgaria and Denmark are all distinct enough from one another to win votes after the less inviting run from the Czech Republic to Latvia (which still makes you sit up and take notice, but mostly because it is so irritating).

If the last third or so of the semi-final produces the same number of qualifiers this part of the contest normally does, I really don't know which they'll be. Portugal closes the show with a punch that should see them do well, and Malta may benefit from being bookended by Hungary and Cyprus, though I'm not sure it will be enough to qualify. FYR Macedonia's chances are something of a mystery too.

Again, for what it's worth, the following are the countries whose names I predict will be in the ten envelopes at the end of the night. Repeating myself from last time, they do not necessarily represent who I want to get through; they are based on the assumption that all of the performances will be equally good and equally attractive in their own way; no distinction is made between the nine that qualify through televoting and the jury wildcard; and they're in alphabetical order rather than any anticipated ranking.

- Albania
- Bulgaria
- Croatia
- Denmark
- FYR Macedonia
- Malta
- Portugal
- Sweden
- Turkey
- Ukraine

Once again I feel I'm on fairly safe ground with about half of them, although picking the last few qualifiers was a struggle. There are fewer songs in the second semi-final that I have as much affection for, which makes it easier in the sense of not 'making sure' my favourites are reflected in my prediction, but trying to figure out what your average European televoter will go for if I don't also makes it harder ;-)

With the rehearsals underway in Belgrade and more of an idea forming of what performances will look like, speculation about how qualification chances are being affected is already rife, although I'll be reserving judgement until the night itself (and probably then still getting a fair few wrong). The first semi-final is a week away today, so we don't have long to wait!