Ireland

Et Cetera Sinéad Mulvey & Black Daisy

"I've heard that oh so many times.."

You should never underestimate the importance of knowing your audience at Eurovision. A phenomenon with a disproportionately large gay following it may be, but the core of the target audience in an era where televoting holds such power is the text-addicted teenage market, predominantly girls. With the reintroduction of the juries, composers now also have to take the arguably (or at least preferably) more mature tastes of music professionals into account, or provide them with something they'll feel relatively comfortable with. Striking a balance between the two cannot be easy, despite the permutations, but the team behind this year's Irish entry Et Cetera have done a pretty good job of it - giving the kids a song with all the appeal of High School Musical and going totally eighties on the rest of the audience at the same time.

A crossover entry in a number of ways, Et Cetera has a world-weary pubescent attitude to it that will nevertheless resonate with anyone ever jilted in their formative years (especially if they coincided with the female pop/rock explosion of the mid-to-late 1980s). Given a fun, confident performance by Sinéad Mulvey and the slightly dowdy, slightly wooden Black Daisy - one which flicks a great big 'whatever' in the direction of all two-timing arseholes everywhere - the audience may just urge them on. Quite apart from which, there is enough about Et Cetera to also grab your average Eurovision fan, with a simple melody that sticks in your head almost instantly and a quintessential key change.

And yet they are the very reasons I'm doubting its chances. As competent as Et Cetera is, it is far from groundbreaking, and it is the kind of song that could very easily fall flat if it doesn't come together in precisely the way it should. Ireland haven't been helped by the draw either, coming this early on and followed immediately by the just as noisy but more offbeat Latvian entry. The fact that one third of the ESC line-up of Black Daisy is Lithuanian might secure the song double digits from Vilnius (repaying the compliment for once), but thereafter support may dwindle. It will come down to how well attuned Et Cetera is to its Thursday night audience, and how sympathetic they are to its plight. It is, after all, a song we've heard many times before.

Croatia

Lijepa Tena Igor Cukrov feat. Andrea

"Umorne oči odmaraš, začaraš..."

'Timeless' is not a word people often use in praise of Eurovision entries. It generally applies to anything towards the ballad end of the scale, and is usually a diplomatic synonym for "doesn't make any effort to sound contemporary whatsoever". Which is not a bad thing per se, since in production terms at least they remain modern takes on classic sounds, with today's technology bringing out the best in any well-structured composition. This is very much the case with the Croatian entry for Moscow, Lijepa Tena, which opens the 2nd semi-final with none of the trashy sensibilities of its near-neighbour and fellow opener Montenegro: a delightful slice of Adriatic yesteryear, it is a perfect song to listen to over and over again, but may lack the immediacy it needs to convince viewers.

Coming straight after actual neighbours Bosnia and Herzegovina in the running order, if separated by two nights and an entire semi, Croatia shows as much of a talent for acoustic and percussive layering with Lijepa Tena, whilst being about as different from Bistra Voda as they could possibly be. Their entry is another song made for headphones and repeated listens, each one throwing up a new aspect of the arrangement and orchestration to marvel at. Whether this depth of sound reaches the audience (and whether they appreciate it) is one thing; whether the sheer Croatianness of it translates is another. It should: Lijepa Tena, like almost all of the country's entries, couldn't come from anywhere else, but has the kind of sound that crosses borders further than just the other side of the Danube.

Of course, the audience being sold on the song has less to do with how it sounds in and of itself and more to do with how crooner Igor Cukrov makes it sound - and here we come to the crux of the problem Lijepa Tena will have to overcome. Archetypal ballads need someone delivering them who can do so without making the audience go "ooh, had enough of that". Igor has a fine voice for this kind of song, but possibly not the wont to rein it in, and as a result treads an equally fine line. The addition of the lovely Andrea is a good idea in theory, but her vocals may well eclipse the lead singer's and/or underscore their weaknesses. Ms Šušnjara is undoubtedly a trump card for the song, but for Croatia's sake she and Mr Cukrov will need to have fine-tuned their approach to Lijepa Tena to really get it across to viewers the way it deserves to be.

That said, the song's fate is hard to predict even if they perform the pants off it. The very nature of Lijepa Tena could see it win widespread approval, but its obvious roots could restrict its appeal to its own corner of the world -which, while not insubstantial, may not be enough to earn it an onward ticket to the final. If it is done justice on stage I would like to see it there, since it is a quality entry, and probably Croatia's most accessible in European terms of the last five years. Timeless it may be, but then it's been many a year since Eurovision was a product of its time.

Semi 2

The 2nd semi-final is almost the opposite of the 1st, with more ballads and anthems earlier in the run and the final five songs all being uptempo to one degree or another. This will probably favour those in the second half of the draw more than it did in the 1st semi (even if it ends up producing more qualifiers!) and could lead to a major imbalance in which half of the semi our finalists emerge from.

While three of the six songs in the first third of the draw do have more potential to qualify than the others, only one is virtually guaranteed: fan favourite Norway, whose relentlessly upbeat number has the bookies offering some of the shortest odds on overall victory in the contest's history. Meanwhile, the Serbian entry is in a position to garner enough support from its region and diaspora, while the chances of Latvia doing well - despite being virtually the opposite of Norway: next to no one's favourite - should not be underestimated.

After two more measured and largely forgettable entries the mid-section of the semi starts to throw up more probable qualifiers, with the Danish entry looking like one of the strongest contenders in the field given its easy-listening appeal. Slap bang in the middle of the draw, Slovenia may struggle, especially with Hungary, Azerbaijan and Greece battling it out amongst themselves to see who gets a ticket to the final. The audience may well find it too hard and simply choose to promote all three of them.

After a Lithuanian entry we can only hope the juries will rescue, the last third of the draw cranks up a notch further with ethnopop, Europop and Eurotrash entries from Moldova, Albania and Ukraine that could all do well enough to qualify, although Ukraine is a much safer bet given the nature of the song and performance and its placement in the draw. The Estonian entry it is followed by has an ethereal and almost mesmerising quality which could just as easily capture the viewers' imagination.

As with the 1st semi, the fact that the voting set-up is the same as in 2008 means that picking certain qualifiers is easier than others, but with many songs competing (often back-to-back) with similar entries here the final ten is more of a challenge to predict at this point. Which is a good thing, I might add. I'll put in my two cents' worth as to who I think they might be once I've reviewed each of the songs individually.

Vote in the prediction poll for the 1st semi-final!

The prediction poll for the 1st semi-final will open shortly. Please note that it is a prediction poll and not a poll of your favourite entries. You should select the 10 songs you feel will qualify for Saturday night's final. The poll will close in a week's time, when the poll for the 2nd semi-final will open. But why wait :)

Semi 1: overview

Giving each of the songs in the 1st semi-final the once over - for want of a term even slightly closer to the truth - has seen a shift in my thinking that the qualifiers may represent a fairly even spread of Tuesday night fare. My bias, as in 2008, now favours the rear end of the draw.

Listening to all 18 songs together, I'm starting to wonder whether any from the first third of the show have strong chances other than Armenia. Lent the kind of performances they need, the Czech Republic and Belgium may fight it out for one of the lower qualifying spots; Sweden's chances rest on the audience's mood for an early dose of popera (or the juries once again comprising far too many Eurovision fans). I can't see either Montenegro or Belarus qualifying.

Something strange would have to happen in the middle of the semi for Turkey not to stroll through to Saturday, and I can see the reprieve-starved audience latching on to the simple charms of Iceland, but beyond that this section may also provide a dearth of finalists. I still suspect Switzerland will make it, albeit perhaps not convincingly. As inoffensive as Andorra is, it remains a contender for the lower reaches of the scoreboard.

The closing set of the 1st semi is where I see almost half of its qualifiers coming from. Bosnia and Herzegovina is as safe a bet as Turkey or Armenia, and Romania's not far behind. I can see Portugal receiving enough widespread (if generally modest) support to belie its parochial charms and move forward to the final, with Finland and/or Malta joining them if the performances strike the right note.

Which is basically what I said last year, just changing the names here and there :) It's difficult not to repeat yourself, really: predictions are hard enough to make solely on the basis of studio versions, let alone when you've had them on repeat for anywhere up to four months, and especially when it's the performances on the night that count for everything. You might get a feel for whether something's going to work generally, but you can only ever be confident about things, never certain of them. There's no point to making predictions, of course, and in fact if you don't take any I-told-you-so glee from being spot on, being proven right can be more depressing than anything else.

That said (and I will copy and paste here!), the following are the countries whose names I predict will be in the ten envelopes at the end of the night. Personal preference doesn't come into it; it's based on the assumption that all 18 performances are equally good and equally attractive in their own right; I make no distinction between the nine that qualify through televoting and the jury wildcard; and they're in alphabetical order rather than any anticipated ranking.

- Armenia
- Belgium
- Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Iceland
- Malta
- Portugal
- Romania
- Sweden
- Switzerland
- Turkey

Although thinking about it, it's pretty much a free-for-all before you've even got five. My personal preferences would see the Czech Republic, Andorra and Israel replacing Malta, Sweden and Turkey, and FYR Macedonia maybe even edging out Armenia. Or not. As ever, so much will depend on what they all make of themselves on stage. Our perspectives might change completely once the set reports start filtering in from Moscow. Can't wait!

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bistra Voda Regina

"Nemaš sutra, nemaš danas, lako je, kad ti pjesma srce nađe..."

For an institution more than half a century old, Eurovision is not especially sentimental. Ever since televoting was introduced it has sought to unite Europe in a night (then two) (now three) of harmless entertainment whose values perhaps reflect a more innocent bygone era, but televoting itself has only served to further politicise the event. Some countries - including several in this 1st semi-final - may return to points in their own lives in the contest, but few entries overall have spoken directly to the audience's nostalgia for the way things used to be. (At least not since the 1970s, when Monaco jacked it in and took such la-la reminiscing with them.) One country will be bucking this trend in Moscow: Bosnia and Herzegovina, whose entry Bistra Voda speaks to both the politics and yearning of potentially a great many of the contest's viewers.

Needless to say, this frontline starts somewhere east of Switzerland and extends more or less to the border of Kazakhstan, where anybody with an ability to influence the result will be in REM sleep long before Regina get the chance to ensnare them with their brilliantly constructed propaganda. I'll admit that the red flag-waving importance of Bistra Voda has been overplayed, but there's no denying that the style and substance of the song will appeal to a certain Eurovision demographic more than it will another. It won't hurt the song's chances that it's being performed down the road from the Kremlin, the historical heart of a doctrine whose passing an inordinate number of people still mourn. I suppose it's the ideals at the heart of the song that make it attractive, rather than the ideology it is perhaps unjustly associated with. Well, that and the fact it's a little triumph.

Whoever wrote Bistra Voda, they know how to produce a song in about 47 different parts and put it together so that it works as a cogent whole. Anyone with an appreciation of multi-layered composition (if not politics) should immerse themselves in these three minutes and listen to them over and over again, counting off the number of new elements they discover each time. A masterclass in acoustics and percussion, it is one of the most rewarding songs Eurovision has given us in a long time, with its arrangement reflecting both the clear waters of the title and the deeper meaning of its lyrics. Juries who know their music should love it, even if the viewers on the side of the continent the song is less likely to mean anything to don't.

Along with Armenia, Turkey and Romania, Bosnia and Herzegovina is virtually assured a place among the qualifiers from the 1st semi, and in Regina's case at least I'd say it was completely deserved. Whatever its underlying message might be and regardless of whose sense of nostalgia it addresses, it is simply one of the best songs of the year. It may be hampered slightly by the fact that it takes you some time to realise this, but with juries involved in the final I certainly can't see it doing any worse than 2007 and 2008's Rijeka Bez Imena and Pokušaj. It may not recapture the glory days of 2006 and Lejla's podium finish, but every sentiment I have is telling me that in Bistra Voda we have our first sure-fire top 10 entry of 2009.

Malta

What If We Chiara

"If you don't know your destination, who determines your destiny?"

If Eurovision had a favourite fish dish, it would be cod. Since the free language rule was reintroduced in 1999, every year has seen one or more countries serving up cod-philosophy in this anthem or that, many of them in cod-English. One country here has had an advantage over its competitors since well before the language requirement was dropped: Malta, the bastion of garbled English, which has been hooking audiences with cleverly disguised bait ever since it returned to the contest in 1991. With a mindset as peculiar as their use of language, they have bestowed upon Eurovision a number of dodgy anthems, adding to the list in Moscow with their 2009 entry What If We.

The fact that the song was penned by a pair of Belgians is happenstance, or perhaps serendipity, since it suits Malta down to the ground. It may well have been written specifically for Chiara, who makes another appearance at the contest having finished 3rd and 2nd on her earlier attempts. With a voice as big as her presence, Ms Siracusa is not one to underestimate: neither of her previous entries seemed particularly ambitious or set to make much of an impact prior to the 1998 and 2005 contests, but in the latter especially she proved more than capable of giving the kind of performance that will lift a middle-of-the-road song and place it within reach of victory.

That's why I'm hesitant to rule What If We out of contention simply because many feel it lacks immediacy and comes across as mediocre. Most seem to agree that it is the weakest of Chiara's entries to date, but she is not competing against herself: her chances are entirely dependent on the other fish in her basket. In that sense she is well-placed, since What If We has the lift and drive that an entry second-to-last in a semi-final probably needs to make it across the line. And the song itself is no slouch - with the vocal and musical arrangements drawn separately but working together very effectively - so any jury with a soft spot for big lasses singing well-meaning songs should lap it up.

What If We might be a throwback to Malta's la-di-da heyday of Little Child, More Than Love and Let Me Fly, but that may not be such a bad thing with Chiara at the helm. In fact it's quite possibly a dangerous combination. Let's face it, 99% of viewers will be seeing these songs for the first time on the night, of whom 99% won't care what she's singing about (however obviously missing the point it is - see quote above), so if she makes it as massive as she is, lots of people will probably go for it. Cod-anything is unremarkable though by its very nature, and as such I remain to be convinced that it deserves a place on the Saturday night table.