Armenia

Qele Qele Sirusho

In a year in which there seem to be few certainties in Eurovision, with a fairly open field and no absolute favourite for victory, one thing most are agreed on is that Armenia is a foolproof qualifier from the first semi-final. The thinking behind this seems sound enough: this year they are following the winning formula of an attractive young lady singing an upbeat song with ethnic touches; they have finished inside the top ten in the final on both of their previous appearances, thanks largely to a text-happy diaspora; and a large proportion of that diaspora coincidentally happens to be voting in the first semi-final. You might think a Saturday slot is a mere formality, with the three minutes on Tuesday just another chance to sort out the camera angles and lighting prior to it actually counting. And you'd probably be right.

There's only one problem. Why are we convinced of the qualification chances of a song we have never heard performed live? Why has everyone put so much faith in statistics and chosen to overlook the fact that for all we know Sirusho might make a total dog's breakfast of the whole thing, even if she does look pretty while doing so? We have seen in the past that traditional supporters of one country or another will not give their unconditional backing to an entry if it fails to live up to expectations, and surely where Qele Qele is concerned those have been built up to proportions that will leave an entire nation with its head in its hands wondering where it all went wrong if Armenia fails to be one of the names in those ten envelopes.

Mind you, there's nothing about Sirusho that suggests she can't handle herself on stage. She clearly knows how to perform, and choreography shouldn't be a problem. It's just that when you mime your way through a national final it does tend to set a few alarm bells ringing. It doesn't help matters that her voice - in the studio version, obviously - has an edge to it that makes me think she's only ever one overambitious dance step away from sounding unattractive for the two and half minutes after that arresting opening. It's for that reason (among others) that I approach the Armenian entry with a caution borne of expecting a Sakis Rouvas clone from Cyprus in 2005 and ending up with Ela Ela.

For there's no denying that while engaging enough in its own way, Qele Qele is one of the most calculated pre-fab songs in this year's contest. (This is especially obvious coming straight after Bosnia & Herzegovina's unconventional entry.) Not that you can blame them for taking the path of least resistance: the whole point of Eurovision is to find a mix that people like, and in this song Armenia pretty much has all of the ingredients it needs for a good result. Nor is it beyond praise: the blend of synths and traditional instruments works very well and produces one of the most rhythmic numbers we will see in Belgrade. I'm not sure it sustains itself the way it needs to, musically, although any gaps here are likely to be filled visually on the night.

In the end we can only ever make predictions on the assumption that all of the performances will be solid; start introducing variables and you lose objectivity. On that basis I imagine Armenia will qualify for the final, but after that their fate largely depends on who qualifies with them. If the rest of the field is free of upbeat girly songs, they should be in with a shout of bettering their regulation eighth place. If not, and the draw is not all that kind to them, they'll probably still come eighth anyway. If statistics are anything to go by.